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Monday, November 28, 2011
This Week; interest rates are opening weaker on Monday with stocks rallying on better than expected Holiday shopping on Black Friday and the rest of the weekend. We continue to believe that US interest rates are about at their lows when the 10 yr moves below 2.00% as it did last week. Europe continues to play a role in the global bond markets however unless there is an actual default in Greece or Italy markets appear to have discounted the problems in the region; until more negative news unfolds the bond market will be focused more on domestic issues.
This week has a number of key data points beside the daily report on retail sales this holiday season. Monday we get new home sales for Oct (expected generally unchanged). Tuesday Nov consumer confidence. Wednesday ADP report on non-farm private jobs, Nov Chicago purchasing mgrs index, Sept pending home sales, and the Fed's Beige Book. Thursday weekly claims, the ISM manufacturing index for Nov. Friday the Nov employment report (non-farm jobs +118K, non farm private jobs +133K and the unemployment rate at 9.0% unch frm Oct).
As long as there is nothing consequential from Europe this week will be about equity markets and that sector will focus closely on any report on retail sales. Prior to this weekend analysts were generally expecting weaker sales this year than last year. Based on the momentary optimism the current view is that sales may exceed last year's sales pace. The bellwether 10 yr note will be testing its key moving averages through the week with MBSs moving with it as is the norm.
(information from Rate Watch - TBWS)